volume 47-2020

MONTREAL: Airlines need up to another $80 billion to survive, the head of the industry’s trade association told a French daily on Friday, as many countries tighten restrictions to confront another wave of coronavirus infection.

“For the coming months the industry is estimated to need $70-$80 billion (59 to 67 billion euros) in additional aid,” the head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Alexandre de Juniac told La Tribune.

“Otherwise they won’t survive.”

Airlines are one of the sectors worst hit by measures adopted by governments to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but they have also received an estimated $160 billion in aid.

“The longer the crisis lasts, the greater the risk for bankruptcies,” de Juniac was quoted as saying by the daily.

“Nearly 40” airlines “are in a very difficult situation or are under bankruptcy protection or administration,” he added.

Travel restrictions imposed during the first wave of the crisis forced many airlines to ground almost their entire fleets. Many governments stepped in with various forms of aid such as loans, cash injections, and support for furloughed workers.

While traffic picked up as restrictions were eased, it has begun to slow again in recent weeks as the circulation of the coronavirus has surged in numerous countries.

IATA expects traffic to be down by 66 percent for 2020 as a whole.

It believes the traffic won’t return to its 2019 level before 2024 — an estimation based on the expectation of a vaccine becoming available in mid-2021.

It forecasts the revenue of airlines to come in at $419 billion, half of the 2019 level.

De Juniac now expects airlines to suffer losses in the order of $100 billion, up from previous estimates of $87 billion.

Asked about whether the crisis would encourage consolidation in the sector, de Juniac said that in order for that “the companies need the means to buy one another” but that at the moment “they are in survival mode”.

But he said there were likely to be fewer airlines as carriers go bust and that the ones which survive are likely to be smaller as they close routes and sell off aircraft.

“We’ll have smaller companies, but they will probably be pretty strong, dynamic and ready to go. And once they do, I think the recovery will be quick and strong,” said de Juniac.

NEW DEHLI: Air India has received its 5th ban from flying to Hong Kong after carrying multiple positive passengers on two consecutive flights. Air India is now barred from flying from Delhi to Hong Kong for two weeks, from November 20th to December 3rd. The airline has struggled with bans in other countries as well, as cases remain high in India.

Air India received a two-week ban this week after two subsequent flights on November 10th and 17th violated the city’s COVID-19 rules. Both flights had three positive passengers, triggering the automatic ban (more passengers on the 17th flight had since tested positive).

As mentioned, this is Air India’s fifth ban from Hong Kong in six months since flights resumed in May. This means the airline will spend roughly 10 of the last 30 weeks under a ban for carrying too many COVID-19 passengers on each flight. Four of these bans have been for the Delhi-Hong Kong route, while one was for the Mumbai-Hong Kong route.

In total, Air India has imported 87 cases to Hong Kong. The airline received its first ban on August 18th after carrying a startling 16 positive cases on the previous flight. The next few flights have seen lower numbers but still high enough to trigger a ban.

Considering the recurrence of the ban, Hong Kong might consider stricter pre-flight testing rules. Currently, passengers flying from India must show a negative RT-PCR test taken in the last 72 hours to fly. However, this requirement has still allowed dozens of positive passengers to slip through in the last few months, even on flights to other countries.

Another important question is who is to blame for these bans: the airline or the passengers? Speaking to the Times of India, an Air India spokesperson said,

“Only passengers with Covid negative reports are being allowed to board from any destination in India. Another mandatory Covid-19 test is carried out for passengers after landing in Hong Kong and reports of the same may be at variance from the reports of tests conducted 72 hours before taking the flight. Hence, Air India cannot be held responsible for any lacunae on the issue of passenger test reports.

While Air India could apply more rigorous testing standards, it is impossible for them to control each passenger’s actions. Regardless of who is to blame, Air India must find a better way of testing to avoid yet another ban in the next few months.